Statistical analysis of inundation model boundary conditions

Modeling Storm Scenarios for Flood Hazard Analyses

Pravin MaduwanthaLeads: Pravin Maduwantha, Amirmasoud Amini
Counselors: Ning Lin, Thomas Wahl

Most flood events are not caused by rainfall or storms alone but rather when multiple factors like storm surge, rainfall, and the volume of water flowing through nearby rivers (known as river discharge) combine to create what is known as a compound flood event. This research project, led by Pravin Maduwantha and Amirmasoud Amini, supports the MACH region’s street-level flood hazard analysis by generating storm scenarios that are then used as inputs for compound flood models. The team builds a large collection of synthetic, but realistic, storms using physics-based models and statistical techniques. When building these synthetic storm data sets, they focus on how different types of storms, like tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and winter storms (nor'easters), produce rain to better understand rainfall patterns and potential impacts to river flows. These estimates are then used in flood model simulations to better understand and prepare for future flood risks.

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Products

Publications

Maduwantha, P., Wahl, T., Santamaria-Aguilar, S., Jane, R. A., Dangendorf, S., Kim, H., & Villarini, G. (2025). Generating Boundary Conditions for Compound Flood Modeling in a Probabilistic Framework. EGUsphere [preprint]. 1-29.
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1557

Maduwantha, P., Wahl, T., Santamaria-Aguilar, S., Jane, R. A., Booth, J. F., Kim, H., & Villarini, G. (2024). A multivariate statistical framework for mixed populations in compound flood analysis. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107.
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024

Presentations

Maduwantha, P., Wahl, T., Santamaria-Aguilar, S., Jane, R., Booth, J.F., Kim, H., and Villarini, G. (2024). The role of locally generated rainfall and remotely driven storm surges in compound flooding [Poster]. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2024. Washington, D.C
https://agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1623603