Hurricane Modeling
Lead: Christine Blackshaw
Counselors: Ning Lin, Michael Oppenheimer
This research project, led by Christine Blackshaw, focuses on supporting hazard and risk analysis related to hurricanes, also known as tropical cyclones, for the MACH region. By generating a large database of historical and future hurricanes, the project aims to investigate how hurricanes and their hazards (wind, surge, rain) may change by the end of the century under different climate scenarios. Efforts also focus on developing robust methods to account for uncertainty and bias in hurricane modeling. Analysis is also extended to evaluate compound hurricane and heatwave events and hazards.
Products
Publications
Begmohammadi, A., Blackshaw, C. Y., Lin, N., Gori, A., Wallace, E., Emanuel, K., & Donnelly, J. P. (2024). Integrating Climatological‐Hydrodynamic Modeling and Paleohurricane Records to Assess Storm Surge Risk. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129(1), e2023JC020354.
DOI: 10.1029/2023JC020354
Begmohammadi, A., Lin, N., Xi, D., & Blackshaw, C. (2025). Assessing future coastal flood hazards from tropical cyclones in the Northeastern United States. Earth's Future, 13(11), e2025EF006063.
DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006063
Blackshaw, C. Y., Lin, N., Begmohammadi, A., & Bou-Zeid, E. (2025). Investigating the interaction of tropical cyclone-heatwave compound hazards in urban environments. Urban Climate, 64, 102667.
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102667
Conference Presentations
Begmohammadi, A., Lin, N., Xi, D., Blackshaw, C. (2024). Future Coastal Flood Hazards from Tropical Cyclones in the Northeastern United States [Poster]. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2024. Washington, D.C. https://agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1693851
Blackshaw, C., and Lin, N. (2024). Investigating the Interaction of Tropical Cyclone-Heatwave Compound Hazards in Urban Canopy Models. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2024. Washington, D.C. https://agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1733654.