Lead: Luo Xu
Counselors: Radley Horton, Ning Lin, Jie Gong

We will employ a power grid outage and recovery model to simulate TC impact on the electric power system for the study areas. Given TC hazards, the power grid failure model first applies probabilistic fragility functions to estimate the damage states of vulnerable components within the power grid. Then, a power flow-based  simulation is then performed to capture the power flow pattern, and the local demand is cut when an overload happens until the system achieves a steady state. To consider impacts of heatwave after the blackouts, we will model the recovery process based on emergency response plans and operational data. The power grid outage and recovery model is developed to be computationally efficient and can be used to simulate impacts from large numbers of synthetic TC and heatwave scenarios generated in TC and heatwave modeling. The analysis results will be estimated percentage/probability of customers being affected by prolonged heat waves without electricity in current and future climates.