Lead: Holly Josephs, Yitong Li
Counselors: Ning Lin, Jie Gong

This sub-project aims to develop catastrophic models (CM) for residential homes using distinctive hurricane damage data sets collected by the MACH team (Rutgers + Princeton) during Hurricane Sandy, Hurricane Harvey, and Hurricane Michael. The Hurricane Sandy data set is predominately about storm surge damages. The Hurricane Harvey data set consists of primarily damages caused by category 4 hurricane wind. The Hurricane Michael data set documented damages caused by both large storm surge and category 5 hurricane wind. The combination of these data sets provide a unique opportunity to improve the current CM model as they allow the clean separation of various factors contributing to the damage states of residential homes. CM plays a vital role in estimation of damage cost and insurance premium. More specifically, we will use these data to derive fragility curves for various types of residential homes, and some of these fragility curves may be derived by applying Bayesian statistic methods on the existing damage models used in the current catastrophic models. The models developed will be used to better estimate the exposure and vulnerability of residential homes along the NY/New Jersey coast.